President McCain or Obama

So Obama and McCain both win in Wisconsin. No shocks there, but it was a state Hillary should have had a shot of winning in. Nine successive defeats for her now, but she's not out. She just has a now almost impossible mountain to climb. To become the nominee she'll not just have to win both Ohio and Texas, but win them in a big way, keep motoring on from there, and most likely have enough super delegates in her pocket in the nominating convention in the summer, and succeed at getting Michigan and Florida delegates seated there and...get the picture? Half of those requirements would alienate people she needs from her anyway.

It's doable, but would now require a comeback far greater than New Hampshire or anything Bill has ever managed. I get the feeling Romney's withdrawal and endorsement of McCain did this to her, and even though I still believe she's the best candidate, that's a political narrative completely out of her control.

And I...Begin to Wonder

We know Obama now has momentum. He has won more states and delegates for the first time since the contest started in earnest in Iowa. The media still love him, and his character has at least been tested by Bill Clinton if noone else (they both seem haughty and to have temper problems - how apt). With her campaign sloughing off key managerial staff and with Clinton herself having to lend the campaign money in order to go on when Obama's making $1 million a day, it looks bad for Hillary. Or does it?

She's still more than able to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, is fighting to get her delegates from Michigan and Florida seated at the Democratic National Convention in the summer (which admittedly isn't doing her any favours), and is currently favoured by a majority of super delegates. This could yet be key for this contest, given that Obama or Clinton would have to win the remaining high-delegate states by margins of over 60% in order to have a fighting chance of crossing their 2025 threshold, leaving the super delegates the final arbiters of who will fight John McCain in November. Key party grandees like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry won't be supporting her, but she successfully humiliated them both in Massachusetts and has someone named Bill on her side. And whilst Obama has successfully made inroads into Hillary's base, remember the older vote which she sill commands is more reliable than the youth vote.

There's still all to play for, but she really needs to trounce him in the next three states in order not to walk away with her campaign terminally crippled.