Gay President Delanoë?

It's a great thought about the mainstreaming of diversity, isn't it? Mayor of Paris Bertrand Delanoë has signalled he's likely to run for the leadership of the French Socialist Party at the end of the year - if he were to win, putting him on a collision course with the hugely unpopular Nicolas Sarkozy at the next presidential election in 2012. This would be routine but for one important factor: Delanoë is gay. It's not unknown for the leaders of major cities to be gay - Klaus Wowereit in Berlin and Mayor-elect Sam Adams in Portland, Oregon are current notable fellows, but none has so far made an attempt to make the transition to the national stage.

So far Delanoë has travelled on the same path which took Boris Johnson to the top in London - that in this day and age, if you offer a certain level of professionalism, straightforwardness and accountability voters are indifferent to your background. There are hints in the UK that that trend will successfully convert to national politics, but despite currently favourable opinion polls, it remains to be seen if the same is true in France. We can but hope - Royal ran a spectacularly unfocused campaign last year against a man widely known to be a monster (who proved to be as well). France needs more competent and likable alternatives.

Clinton and his Record

It's interesting viewing, and shows the similar positions he and Hillary take not just to politics, but to their approach to politics. Clinton defends DOMA as bad but necessary legislation to manage a long game. I wish he didn't make sense but he does, in the same way that Hillary is trying to burst the 'yes we can' Obama bubble. There are realities which lofty rhetoric or noble intentions now cannot tackle or resolve, and there are bad people with large constituencies who will act now if given the ammunition. I don't like DOMA and wish Obama was right in his approach, but Clinton here displays more understanding about the political process than anyone likely to win in November...

Huckabee is a Loon

I'm not sure I'd bother writing a post about Mike Huckabee anymore, but for the strong possibility that he might become Vice President in November. With Obama and Clinton still at one another's throats, and the Democratic Party very likely finally to choose Obama on Tuesday, the political narrative is going to start getting hostile very quickly. Hillary's attack on Obama's inexperience will be nothing compared to McCain's and the Republican Party's. The Democratic Party's primary voters are idealists - a trait rarely found in the general electorate. I don't want McCain to win, but it's far from unlikely, and he'll need a VP who can carry the evangelical vote; the evangelicals currently hate him.



So although Huckabee has no chance of winning the Presidential nomination, McCain might well choose him as his running mate. And this is the point that all right minded people need to see this man for who he is. Dan Quayle was a buffoon who clearly wasn't up to the job (rather like the current White House incumbent), Dick Cheney had plenty of experience but it turned out he was a psychopath who has been and remains the power behind the throne. Neither though would have put their hand up to admit disbelieving evolution (how you can disbelieve in a cornerstone of the natural world is beyond me). Neither also believed in inhibiting gay rights or banning abortion. I'll grant you Dick Cheney was a delusionist of the highest order, in expecting American troops to be met with garlands of flowers upon liberating Iraq from Saddam Hussein. But with a gay daughter, he would never have equated homosexuality with bestiality or paedophilia.

Huckabee insists he's not a homophobe, but his loony beliefs and public statements confirm otherwise. Bush may be an outright nut; does America really want another nut just a heartbeat away from the Presidency?

President McCain or Obama

So Obama and McCain both win in Wisconsin. No shocks there, but it was a state Hillary should have had a shot of winning in. Nine successive defeats for her now, but she's not out. She just has a now almost impossible mountain to climb. To become the nominee she'll not just have to win both Ohio and Texas, but win them in a big way, keep motoring on from there, and most likely have enough super delegates in her pocket in the nominating convention in the summer, and succeed at getting Michigan and Florida delegates seated there and...get the picture? Half of those requirements would alienate people she needs from her anyway.

It's doable, but would now require a comeback far greater than New Hampshire or anything Bill has ever managed. I get the feeling Romney's withdrawal and endorsement of McCain did this to her, and even though I still believe she's the best candidate, that's a political narrative completely out of her control.

And I...Begin to Wonder

We know Obama now has momentum. He has won more states and delegates for the first time since the contest started in earnest in Iowa. The media still love him, and his character has at least been tested by Bill Clinton if noone else (they both seem haughty and to have temper problems - how apt). With her campaign sloughing off key managerial staff and with Clinton herself having to lend the campaign money in order to go on when Obama's making $1 million a day, it looks bad for Hillary. Or does it?

She's still more than able to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, is fighting to get her delegates from Michigan and Florida seated at the Democratic National Convention in the summer (which admittedly isn't doing her any favours), and is currently favoured by a majority of super delegates. This could yet be key for this contest, given that Obama or Clinton would have to win the remaining high-delegate states by margins of over 60% in order to have a fighting chance of crossing their 2025 threshold, leaving the super delegates the final arbiters of who will fight John McCain in November. Key party grandees like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry won't be supporting her, but she successfully humiliated them both in Massachusetts and has someone named Bill on her side. And whilst Obama has successfully made inroads into Hillary's base, remember the older vote which she sill commands is more reliable than the youth vote.

There's still all to play for, but she really needs to trounce him in the next three states in order not to walk away with her campaign terminally crippled.

Bounce or no Bounce?

Today we may find out in the Washington state, Nebraska and Louisiana contests whether Obama or Hillary got a 'bounce' from Super Tuesday. They both claimed to, which is hardly surprising considering the demographics largely becoming their 'bases' did what they needed to in big numbers, but there was no crossover worth mentioning. Obama did well in states outside his comfort zone, Hillary got the major metropolises. Let's see if I can make yet another good call.

Obama and McCain (that last one's now a no-brainer) today, although it'll be very interesting to see if Huckabee takes any of the southern states again. With the Idiot Bush interfering in the contest it'll be interesting to see if his call to his base was heeded or if he's now a lame duck in every conceivable sense.

What could turn out to be the next really exciting showdown though comes on Tuesday. Virginia and Maryland, as well as DC.

Super Tuesday

So I called South Carolina right too.

I'm going to be daring and call the winners today: John McCain and Hillary Clinton. It may not end the Democratic nomination process, but unless Obama wins a majority of states or delegates, he's really not going to make it after all. I think when it comes to the crunch people will plump for Hillary instead of lofty (albeit noble) rhetoric from a one term Senator (albeit one with enormous potential).



Of course the outcome I hope for is a Democrats is an Obama/Clinton ticket. There's not a chance in hell that McCain could beat that.

A Message From the Real President

Of course he makes some fundamental misunderstandings - as a stereotypical straight man (I mean look at Tipper) he probably can't really think outside of the sexual *ahem* box - marriage as the means of locking in fidelity, promiscuity is somehow fundamentally a 'problem' - but ultimately his point is entirely right and just. Loving your partner should be encouraged and celebrated, whoever they are. The statistics show worldwide, in countries which have embraced same sex marriage in its many models - full marriage as in Canada and Spain, through to Britain's civil partnerships - that it's something we're just as good at as straight people. In fact considering that marriage is in decline with them, we're doing it quite a bit better.

Speaking as an American citizen, who is also British, as a gay man who married his male partner in 2006, I feel proud to see the man who was voted for by the majority of Americans in 2000 to speak for them, speaking of my world, my ambitions and my love for my partner in this way. My marriage to Tom doesn't threaten anyone else's, and whilst we've made plenty of mistakes, even some disastrous ones, we remain driven by the entirely symbolic commitment. It's that symbolism which is important. I am someone whose worldview is entirely secular, yet I accept fully that all cultures and individuals have always been driven by belief in the metaphysical; it seems to be part of our nature. It may seem contradictory to some, but it's something I embrace. If only Obama and Clinton had the courage to talk in this way - this is at the heart of what real change is all about.

An Intelligent President

A very interesting watch and he makes some excellent points, particularly in saying that America's economic dependence on oil completely misses the point as it's a post-industrial economy. If Hillary wins the election, I wonder how many of these ideas might be attempted?

Democrats in South Carolina

Well I called it right and was also right in saying that the campaign tone would collapse. The Guardian is right in saying that it's important that the Democratic candidates be tested - whether Hillary can appeal to anyone other than her base and whether Obama actually has any big ideas to match up to the rhetoric. But it's also true that if they spend all their energies demolishing each other, it's entirely true that someone like McCain could creep through the middle.

I'm going to call South Carolina for Obama, which I hope is the case because these two can keep proving themselves rather than resorting to desperate measures merely to win. If Hillary wins though, this gets even nastier, the attacks on Bill Clinton will start to become even more frantic, and the nomination gets essentially sewn up. Just too soon maybe to have a just winner.

Maya Angelou for Hillary

State Package for Hillary Clinton

You may write me down in history

With your bitter, twisted lies,

You may tread me in the very dirt

But still, like dust, I'll rise.

This is not the first time you have seen Hillary Clinton seemingly at her wits' end, but she has always risen, always risen, don't forget she has always risen, much to the dismay of her adversaries and the delight of her friends.

Hillary Clinton will not give up on you and all she asks of you is that you do not give up on her.

There is a world of difference between being a woman and being an old female. If you're born a girl, grow up, and live long enough, you can become an old female. But to become a woman is a serious matter. A woman takes responsibility for the time she takes up and the space she occupies. Hillary Clinton is a woman. She has been there and done that and has still risen. She is in this race for the long haul. She intends to make a difference in our country. Hillary Clinton intends to help our country to be what it can become.

She declares she wants to see more smiles in the family, more courtesies between men and women, more honesty in the marketplace. She is the prayer of every woman and man who longs for fair play, healthy families, good schools, and a balanced economy.

She means to rise.

Don't give up on Hillary. In fact, if you help her to rise, you will rise with her and help her make this country the wonderful, wonderful place where every man and every woman can live freely without sanctimonious piety and without crippling fear.

Rise, Hillary.

Rise.

- Maya Angelou, as found in the Guardian.

Nevada and South Carolina

Difficult call this one. Evidence is leading all over the place in both nasty little contests. Hillary's ahead of Obama in the Nevada opinion polls, but New Hampshire proved poll leads meaningless, and the endorsements Obama's picked up (and the lawsuit he won) could (in this contest for sure) easily negate her advantage. In South Carolina will McCain revenge himself on what was done to him in 2000? Will Romney retain a 'bounce'? Will Huckabee have a constituency?

My call is Clinton/McCain again. If it happens, then I do expect the tone to collapse further than it already has in the last week.

Hillary's Last Stand?

The truth is Hillary could defeat Giuliani at his scare-mongriest, Huckabee at his most religious, could swat Romney like an insect and outsmart McCain.

Obama?

Are we again to have a Presidential debate where the smartest person in the room loses through lack of experience? Or does Obama really have something new, something special? You see I like the idea of a female Commander-in-Chief, of Bill Clinton back in the thick of it. She could hit the ground running, which hasn't been imperative before. It is now. For all Obama's lefty rhetoric, his threat to bomb Pakistan sounds pretty neo-Conservative to me. She voted for Iraq - they all did. It's time to move on - she and Obama both agree on that.

Neither of them has governed but she has been at the forefront of national politics for a generation & her intellect is second to none. Her judgment's also a quantum improvement on Bill's. So why vote Obama?

Unpredictable 2008

Ok so my prediction the other day was diametrically opposed to the reality. No Clinton/Romney, but Obama/Huckabee. I was way off - it looks as though the contests are realigning, and that the overall demands of the electorate are realigning. Maybe. So who to win New Hampshire?

Clinton/McCain

Romney won't leave the contest despite having been floored below the waterline, which will be music to Giuliani's ears for the end of the month. McCain though becomes stronger, the more the 'surge' in Iraq is being spun by the media as being remotely a positive thing.

Hillary did very well in the debate last night by many accounts, and may have blunted the edge of the 'agent of change' label which seems now firmly fastened to Obama. Defining 'experience' (which hasn't worked for her so far) as '35 years as a change maker' was a very good move. If it doesn't stick in New Hampshire though, the mountain she'll have to climb will be increasingly tall. I must say her Bush-esque comments about attacking foreign countries who 'harbour' terrorists (I can't imagine any doing so all that willingly anymore) was very appealing, although nor was Obama's repetition of an earlier claim he would attack 'terrorists' in Pakistan without anyone's prior approval. Does that really jibe with him being an 'agent of change'? Sounds pretty neo-Conservative to me.

Iowa

My guess? It'll be fun to find out the truth tomorrow, but my prediction for this round at least?

Clinton and Romney to win.

Oh you want me to make an initial guess for November? Clinton v Huckabee.